development
  

Period. 14 - 17 September 2020

As the world engages in unprecedented containment, control and mitigation measures, COVID-19 has exposed inequities and vulnerabilities. In low- and middle-income countries, fragile health systems and inadequate financial safety nets compound the triple challenge of pandemic response, social protection, and economic collapse. Global and national economic fragility and massive public debt are new realities, as are unprecedented job losses. Among the approximately two billion informally employed workers globally, containment measures are projected to lead to a decline of 82% in earnings, as the International Labour Organization estimates the pandemic could push 500 million people into poverty.[13],[14] The World Bank has moreover projected the sharpest historic decline in global remittances that could push 40-60 million further people into extreme poverty.[15],[16]

Six months of lockdown have also reversed advances on the rights of women and girls, including an estimated 31 million cases of gender-based violence as well as 7 million additional unintended pregnancies.[17] Lockdowns and border restrictions have also disrupted agricultural production, with the Food and Agriculture Organization and World Food Programme warning that even best-case scenarios will result in global famines that see acute hunger increase by more than 130 million people by the end of 2020.[18] The pandemic is upending food supply chains, crippling economies and eroding consumer purchasing power. The populations most at risk of famine are predominantly in ten countries that are concurrently affected by conflict, economic crisis and climate change.[19]

In complex humanitarian settings, COVID-19 can further amplify existing stressors among vulnerable populations, including among the 70 million forcibly displaced people that often live in displacement camps that are overcrowded, and lack access to health care, sanitation and clean water.[20] Another billion people around the world live in informal peri-urban slums and barrios without safe potable water or adequate health or sanitation services face additional vulnerabilities, while the recent Tropical Cyclone Harold in Fiji illustrates the compounding challenges of natural disasters hitting communities experiencing COVID-19.[21]

Many advanced economies have responded to the pandemic by passing major stimulus packages, as the International Monitory Fund estimates G20 countries have spent upwards of US$11 trillion in new fiscal measures, representing one tenth of global GDP.[22] The gap between donor commitments and the funding needed to respond to the pandemic in low- and middle-income countries, meanwhile, continues to grow reinforcing global inequities in the distribution of resources and fiscal support capacities.[23] The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has tripled its unprecedented and “Extraordinary Appeal” for an immediate Global Humanitarian Response to COVID-19 in fragile countries to US$10.3 billion, that as yet remains only 24% funded.[24] Protecting the most vulnerable 10% of the world (or 700 million people) across 32 countries from the worst impacts of COVID-19 in complex humanitarian settings would require US$90 billion, or less than 1% of the stimulus packages that G20 countries have underwritten.[25] The UN Emergency Response Coordinator warns that the pandemic and the associated global recession are about to wreak havoc in fragile states, while describe the response by wealthier countries as “grossly inadequate and dangerously short-sighted.”[26]

Health emergency preparedness requires effective, agile systems for prevention, detection, response, and recovery with the flexibility and scalability required to cope with a variety of emergencies, commensurate with the required response.[27] Planning for emergencies requires prioritizing systems building across the whole of society, in a variety of contexts, testing different models, and creating environments and mechanisms for sharing best practices, among countries at all economic levels. This lack of multisectoral preparedness left many societies scrambling to figure out how to maintain essential services and mitigate economic disruptions.[28]

The potential impact of pandemics on non-health sectors and the private sector has been a known risk for years; yet, health emergency preparedness remains siloed and with little reach beyond public health.[29] As COVID-19 has shown, pandemics require a comprehensive response, encompassing health, mental health and psycho-social support education, and other aspects of the social and economic sectors. Many sectors lacked plans to mitigate not only the public health risks but also the potential socioeconomic impact of the pandemic, including strategies for managing breaks in supply chains, school and childcare closures, food shortages, and unemployment, in a way that was least disruptive to personal finances, commerce, and daily lives.


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