State of the Pandemic, International Monetary Fund, Economy, Food Insecurity, Bangladesh, China, India, Iran, Pakistan, Singapore
development

Organisations. International Monetary Fund IMF
Period. 13 – 19 April 2020

Earlier today, China increased the number of COVID-related deaths in Wuhan by 50%, raising the country’s toll by 1,300 to 4,632. While the government claims this reflects updated hospital counts as well as those who died at home, the revision in the reported figures partially validates accusations of under-reporting, including by intelligence agencies. The broader challenge is that most models of the pandemic are based on prior figures from China and may need to be revised to reflect these significant adjustments.

In China, a cluster of cases linked to the Nigerian community in Guangzhou has also sparked alleged discrimination towards Africans by locals and virus prevention officials.

Asian-Pacific countries are beginning to experience second waves of infections, including Singapore which is reporting the highest case rate in the region (500 cases per million people). Despite these spikes, the “suppress and lift” strategy of aggressive testing, isolation, and contact tracing by countries such as Singapore and Hong Kong remains a model response and has helped prevent exponential spread.

In Iran, the number of reported cases and deaths approach 80,000 and 5,000, respectively. Fearing a protracted economic crisis, some “low-risk” businesses were allowed to open, prompting concerns of a second wave of infections. The government has asked for economic support and sanction relief from the IMF, which the U.S. has thus far blocked despite international pressure to sideline geopolitical tensions to allow countries to respond to the pandemic.

With 13,835 confirmed cases, India has become the third Asian country to surpass the 10,000 mark. Like in Pakistan (7,025) and Bangladesh (1,838), the true outbreak size is expected to be significantly higher in India due to varying testing and counting strategies. In India, the government has extended the nation-wide lockdown until May 3, while food shortages and a mass exodus from major urban areas has raised concern about local transmission in rural parts of the country. There are positive reports that some states like Kerala have managed to bend the curve by adopting “aggressive testing, contact tracing, and cooked meals.”

This development is part of the digest;