Clinical Public Health, State of the Pandemic, Europe, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain
development

Period. 30 March – 5 April 2020

Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non- pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries (Flaxman et al, Imperial College London)

Findings

This study attempts to infer the impact of different interventions across 11 European countries using a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model. The authors estimate that through the end of March, interventions taken by countries likely averted 59,000 deaths while reducing reproduction numbers. During this period, the authors also estimate that 7-43 million people may have been infected across the 11 countries (or approx. 2-11% of total population). Spain and Italy are estimated to have the highest attack rate, with Germany and Norway on the lower end (possibly reflecting the relative stages of the epidemics.

Interpretation

While the two to three-week delay between transmission changes and observed impact on mortality make it difficult to evaluate the effectiveness of recent interventions, the authors urge that preliminary evidence suggests that current interventions remain in place and that trends in cases and deaths be closely monitored to provide reassurance that transmission is slowing.

This development is part of the digest;