Clinical Public Health, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, United States
development

Organisations. U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDC
Period. 23 - 29 March 2020

CDC (Early Release): Identifying Locations with Possible Undetected Imported Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Cases by Using Importation Predictions (De Salazar et al. 2020)

Findings

The aim was to identify locations with likely undetected or under-detected imported cases of COVID-19. The results suggest that locations above the 95% PI of imported-and-reported cases could have higher case-detection capacity. Locations below the 95% PI might have undetected cases because of expected imported-and-reported case counts under high surveillance. Under-detection of cases could increase the international spread of the outbreak because the transmission chain could be lost, reducing opportunities to deploy case-based control strategies.

Interpretation

They recommend rapid strengthening of outbreak surveillance and control efforts in locations below the 95% PI lower bound to curb potential local transmission. Early detection of cases and implantation of appropriate control measures can reduce the risk for self-sustained transmission in all locations.

This development is part of the digest;