Currently Displaying: 2 Posts. 1 Page.
ngq, you sexy beast! Here is a sanity check for that clean meta. ;)
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                    [post_date] => 2020-04-19 11:31:30
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2020-04-19 15:31:30
                    [post_content] => 
Ten countries have now confirmed more than 1,000 COVID-related deaths, with 14 countries reporting more than 10,000 cases. With less than 17% of all confirmed cases globally, Italy and Spain continue to account for more than 35% of all reported deaths (21,645 and 19,130, respectively). Both countries are experiencing a slow-down in the rates of transmission, however, and while Spain is beginning to relax control measures, Italy has extended lockdown measures until May.


Sweden (12,540) is the latest country to exceed 10,000 cases, as the number of deaths doubled in less than a week, which has been blamed on its controversial voluntary public health measures. France (147,863) and Turkey (69,392) continue to experience significant daily increases in confirmed cases and deaths, while the U.K. is expected to see a drop in new cases and hospitalization, despite surpassing 10,000 deaths and approaching 100,000 cases. The U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson was moved out of Intensive Care over the weekend, noting “I owe (NHS staff) my life.”


Transmission rates in Russia have also raised concerns, as daily reported cases continue to surge 20% for a second consecutive day, approaching 28,000 cases and 232 deaths. As the number of COVID-related deaths in Belgium surpass China, Germany is reporting an increase of COVID-related outbreaks in nursing homes and hospitals, where the elderly account for only 17% of cases but 86% of all deaths.


Many European countries are also reporting high CFR near or above 10%, including Italy, Spain, France, the U.K., Netherlands, Belgium, and Sweden. This has been partly attributed to selective testing strategies, as a paper this week in BMJ suggests early and widespread testing may be contributing to Germany’s relatively low CFR (2%). The European CDC has recommended that countries scale up testing and surveillance systems to guide and monitor the escalation and de-escalation of mitigation strategies.


                    [post_title] => Regional Snapshot: Europe
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                    [post_date] => 2020-04-12 10:00:11
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2020-04-12 14:00:11
                    [post_content] => 
Short-term forecasts of COVID-19 deaths in multiple countries


Imperial College London, 8 April 2020


https://sangeetabhatia03.github.io/covid19-short-term-forecasts/index.html


This weekly report by Imperial College London presents forecasts of transmission and mortality estimates over the coming week for 42 countries with active transmission, accounting for the impact of control measures. The caveat with these forecasts is that accuracy varies with the quality of surveillance and reporting, i.e. presenting likely underestimates for countries with poor reporting. That said, based on transmissibility estimates, the COVID-19 epidemic is expected to demonstrate:


    

  • Stabilizing patterns in 14 countries (including Italy, Iran, Iraq, South Korea);
    • 

  • Slow-growth transmission (1<Rt<2) in Spain and Netherlands; and
    • 

  • Rapidly growing transmission (Rt>2) across 26 countries (including Algeria, Brazil, Canada, China, Egypt, France, Germany, India, Japan, Peru, Turkey, U.K. and U.S.).
    • 



Based on central forecasting trends, reported deaths in the coming week are expected to be:


    

  • Relatively small (<100) and large (100-1000) in 29 countries;
    • 

  • Large (1,000-5,000) in 8 countries (including Algeria, Brazil, Germany, Iran, and Turkey); and
    • 

  • Very large (5,000+) in 5 countries (France, Italy, Spain, U.K. and U.S).
    • 



New COVID-19 forecasts for Europe: Italy & Spain have passed the peak of their epidemics; UK, early in its epidemic, faces a fast-mounting death toll


Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, 7 April 2020


http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/new-covid-19-forecasts-europe-italy-spain-have-passed-peak-their-epidemics-uk-early-its


New COVID-19 forecast from IHME found that among European nations, the peak daily death rate from the pandemic will occur during the third week of April, with the pandemic spreading from Southern Europe. According to current trajectories, 151,680 COVID-19 deaths could occur during the “first wave” of the pandemic in Europe, while the U.S. is expected to face 81,766 deaths. Declines in deaths are now occurring in Italy and Spain as most regions in the two countries have passed their peaks in the number of deaths, while other nations are approaching their peaks and still others facing peak mortality later in April. The death toll in many countries is compounded by demand for hospital resources well in excess of what is available. Predicted peaks in daily COVID-19 deaths appear to be highly variable among EEA countries, likely reflecting the equally variable ways that the novel coronavirus initially spread and then continued to affect Europe.


Projecting hospital utilization during the COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States


Moghadas et al, National Academy of Sciences, 3 April 2020


https://www.pnas.org/content/117/16/9122


Findings


Without isolation and with R0 = 2.5, treatment of critically ill patients at the outbreak peak would require 3.8x more ICU beds than exist in the U.S. (or 2x if R0 = 2). With self-isolation by 20% of cases within 24 hours of symptom onset, the outbreak trajectory would delay and flatten, and the number of ICU beds needed at the peak would reduce by 48.4% (or 73.5% if R0 = 2).


Interpretation


Hand washing and self-isolation is shown to significantly contribute to reducing the rate of spread of COVID-19, and therefore reducing the number of ICU beds needed at any one time. This could facilitate emergency mobilization to expand mobilization of critical care capacity to handle the burgeoning outbreak.


                    [post_title] => Research on Forecasting Peak Transmission and Health System Utilization
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Ten countries have now confirmed more than 1,000 COVID-related deaths, with 14 countries reporting more than 10,000 cases. With less than 17% of all confirmed cases globally, Italy and Spain continue to account for more than 35% of all reported deaths (21,645 and 19,130, respectively). Both countries are experiencing a slow-down in the rates of transmission, however, and while Spain is beginning to relax control measures, Italy has extended lockdown measures until May.


Sweden (12,540) is the latest country to exceed 10,000 cases, as the number of deaths doubled in less than a week, which has been blamed on its controversial voluntary public health measures. France (147,863) and Turkey (69,392) continue to experience significant daily increases in confirmed cases and deaths, while the U.K. is expected to see a drop in new cases and hospitalization, despite surpassing 10,000 deaths and approaching 100,000 cases. The U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson was moved out of Intensive Care over the weekend, noting “I owe (NHS staff) my life.”


Transmission rates in Russia have also raised concerns, as daily reported cases continue to surge 20% for a second consecutive day, approaching 28,000 cases and 232 deaths. As the number of COVID-related deaths in Belgium surpass China, Germany is reporting an increase of COVID-related outbreaks in nursing homes and hospitals, where the elderly account for only 17% of cases but 86% of all deaths.


Many European countries are also reporting high CFR near or above 10%, including Italy, Spain, France, the U.K., Netherlands, Belgium, and Sweden. This has been partly attributed to selective testing strategies, as a paper this week in BMJ suggests early and widespread testing may be contributing to Germany’s relatively low CFR (2%). The European CDC has recommended that countries scale up testing and surveillance systems to guide and monitor the escalation and de-escalation of mitigation strategies.


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