Access and R&D, Canada, Germany, India, Iran, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, South Korea, Spain, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States
development

Period. 6 – 12 April 2020

Short-term forecasts of COVID-19 deaths in multiple countries

Imperial College London, 8 April 2020

https://sangeetabhatia03.github.io/covid19-short-term-forecasts/index.html

This weekly report by Imperial College London presents forecasts of transmission and mortality estimates over the coming week for 42 countries with active transmission, accounting for the impact of control measures. The caveat with these forecasts is that accuracy varies with the quality of surveillance and reporting, i.e. presenting likely underestimates for countries with poor reporting. That said, based on transmissibility estimates, the COVID-19 epidemic is expected to demonstrate:

  • Stabilizing patterns in 14 countries (including Italy, Iran, Iraq, South Korea);
  • Slow-growth transmission (1<Rt<2) in Spain and Netherlands; and
  • Rapidly growing transmission (Rt>2) across 26 countries (including Algeria, Brazil, Canada, China, Egypt, France, Germany, India, Japan, Peru, Turkey, U.K. and U.S.).

Based on central forecasting trends, reported deaths in the coming week are expected to be:

  • Relatively small (<100) and large (100-1000) in 29 countries;
  • Large (1,000-5,000) in 8 countries (including Algeria, Brazil, Germany, Iran, and Turkey); and
  • Very large (5,000+) in 5 countries (France, Italy, Spain, U.K. and U.S).

New COVID-19 forecasts for Europe: Italy & Spain have passed the peak of their epidemics; UK, early in its epidemic, faces a fast-mounting death toll

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, 7 April 2020

http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/new-covid-19-forecasts-europe-italy-spain-have-passed-peak-their-epidemics-uk-early-its

New COVID-19 forecast from IHME found that among European nations, the peak daily death rate from the pandemic will occur during the third week of April, with the pandemic spreading from Southern Europe. According to current trajectories, 151,680 COVID-19 deaths could occur during the “first wave” of the pandemic in Europe, while the U.S. is expected to face 81,766 deaths. Declines in deaths are now occurring in Italy and Spain as most regions in the two countries have passed their peaks in the number of deaths, while other nations are approaching their peaks and still others facing peak mortality later in April. The death toll in many countries is compounded by demand for hospital resources well in excess of what is available. Predicted peaks in daily COVID-19 deaths appear to be highly variable among EEA countries, likely reflecting the equally variable ways that the novel coronavirus initially spread and then continued to affect Europe.

Projecting hospital utilization during the COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States

Moghadas et al, National Academy of Sciences, 3 April 2020

https://www.pnas.org/content/117/16/9122

Findings

Without isolation and with R0 = 2.5, treatment of critically ill patients at the outbreak peak would require 3.8x more ICU beds than exist in the U.S. (or 2x if R0 = 2). With self-isolation by 20% of cases within 24 hours of symptom onset, the outbreak trajectory would delay and flatten, and the number of ICU beds needed at the peak would reduce by 48.4% (or 73.5% if R0 = 2).

Interpretation

Hand washing and self-isolation is shown to significantly contribute to reducing the rate of spread of COVID-19, and therefore reducing the number of ICU beds needed at any one time. This could facilitate emergency mobilization to expand mobilization of critical care capacity to handle the burgeoning outbreak.

This development is part of the digest;