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ngq, you sexy beast! Here is a sanity check for that clean meta. ;)
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                    [post_date] => 2020-04-19 11:19:30
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2020-04-19 15:19:30
                    [post_content] => 
During this unprecedented global pandemic, U.S. President Trump announced his intention to suspend funding to the WHO over accusations of mismanagement. The move has been roundly criticized by many governments and the EU, global health experts as well as the UN Secretary General. The U.S., meanwhile, has raised questions about its own handling of the pandemic, as it remains the epicentre with almost a third of all worldwide cases (644,806) and over 20% of all COVID-related deaths. The five worst affected countries (U.S., Spain, Italy, Germany, France) account for over 60% of all cases and almost 80% of deaths globally.


                    [post_title] => Trump announces intention to suspend WHO funding
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                    [post_date] => 2020-04-12 10:06:11
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2020-04-12 14:06:11
                    [post_content] => 
With just 2% of the world’s commercial air traffic, the novel Coronavirus took time to gain a foothold in Africa, but all 55 countries are now reporting cases. As of this morning, there are 13,771 confirmed cases (40% weekly increase) and over 750 deaths across the continent. The Director of the Africa CDC warned that COVID-19 represents an “existential threat for our continent,” as more than 20 countries have now reported at least 100 cases and local transmission is expected to surge over the following week.


South Africa surpassed 2,000 confirmed cases, but has been praised for its proactive response, including early and strong border control and testing measures. The rate of new daily reported cases drastically reduced from 42% two weeks ago to an estimated 4% after the government imposed strict lockdown and border control measures. With expected community transmission, the lockdown has been extended to the end of April, and the government is actively preparing local health systems and rolling out mass testing and screening campaigns with winter approaching.


Northern Africa remains the most affected region, as three countries are approaching 2,000 cases, including Egypt(1,939), Algeria (1,825), and Morocco (1,617). The UN and regional authorities have expressed particular concern over sub-Saharan Africa, as limited diagnostic testing kits and public health surveillance capacity is likely masking and further exacerbating local outbreaks. The African Centre for Strategic Studies has warned that South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan and Nigeria are particularly vulnerable to the spread of COVID-19.


Healthcare workers are also acutely at risk, with 267 confirmed cases. More than 10 countries have also suspended vaccination campaigns, including the DRC where 6,500 children have died of measles since an outbreak was first reported in October 2018.


France is taking an active role in supporting South Africa’s leadership in establishing a comprehensive regional action plan to assist African countries cope with the coronavirus pandemic. The UN Economic Commission for Africa has endorsed France’s proposal to impose a moratorium on African debt, calling for IMF Special drawing Rights of up to US$500 billion.


The UN and regional authorities have expressed particular concern over sub-Saharan Africa, as limited diagnostic testing kits and public health surveillance capacity is likely masking and further exacerbating local outbreaks. Based on a targeted survey of risk factors, the African Centre for Strategic Studies has warned that South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan and Nigeria are particularly vulnerable to the spread of COVID-19.


                    [post_title] => Situation Summary: Africa
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                    [post_modified] => 2020-08-13 22:41:14
                    [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-14 02:41:14
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                    [guid] => https://covid19.dighr.org/developments/situation-summary-africa/
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                    [post_date] => 2020-04-12 10:05:11
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2020-04-12 14:05:11
                    [post_content] => 
April 9 marks the 100th day since the WHO was notified of the first case of “pneumonia of unknown cause” in Wuhan, China.


As of April 12 at 10am EST, the total worldwide deaths from COVID-19 has surpassed 110,000, as confirmed cases approach 1.8 million. The actual number of dead and infected worldwide are believed to be much higher, but testing shortages, different counting practices and concealment by some governments limit detection and reporting.


The U.S. is the current global epicentre with over 530,000 confirmed cases and over 20,000 deaths, while the five worst affected countries (U.S., Spain, Italy, Germany, France) account for over 60% of all cases and almost 80% of deaths globally.


Community transmission is spreading, and the rapid increase of cases across low- and middle-income countries has become a critical global issue, as over 20 developing countries are reporting more than 1,000 cases. The number of African cases increased approximately by 40% over the past week, with all 55 countries reporting cases and 8 African countries seeing exponential rise. South Africa’s border controls and lockdown over the past two weeks have significantly reduced the number of new cases.


The economic fallout from the global pandemic could push 500 million people into poverty (8% of global population), according to a UN University report. This would be the first time that poverty has increased globally in over thirty years. The World Bank and IMF have scaled up and accelerated efforts to provide emergency funding to countries, while the UN Office for the Coordination for Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) issued a US$2 billion appeal for a Coordinated Global Humanitarian Response Plan, which as of April 8, is only 20% funded.


As governments confront the dual challenge of containing the viral pandemic and economic crisis, public health experts warn countries that premature re-opening could lead to a second wave of outbreaks, echoed as well by modelling projections in a recent Lancet paper. Oxfam has urged world leaders to contribute to the $2.5 trillion economic rescue plan set out by the UN to “keep poor countries and poor communities afloat.” Mounting job losses and disruptions to global supply chains are also expected to result in chronic food shortages, as countries are urged to keep trade open and to protect farmers.


                    [post_title] => Global Snapshot
                    [post_excerpt] => 
                    [post_status] => publish
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                    [post_name] => global-snapshot
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                    [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-14 02:41:14
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                    [guid] => https://covid19.dighr.org/developments/global-snapshot/
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                    [post_date] => 2020-04-12 09:57:11
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2020-04-12 13:57:11
                    [post_content] => 
Amy Maxmen, Nature News, 1 April 2020


https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00983-9


The threat of a COVID-19 explosion across developing countries continues to grow. While the first dozen cases in Africa were detected in March, the virus likely arrived weeks or months before. Despite the rising incidence of test positive cases, limited testing and contact tracing capacity, political leadership and resource mobilization from donor nations has been lacking, despite calls from the WHO and the UN Secretary General. Many countries face underfunded healthcare systems, unreliable stocks of essential medicines, precarious access to health facilities, and frequent power outages. The Ebola outbreaks also showed that when health systems are overwhelmed by one infectious disease, many often die from a lack of care for malaria, pneumonia and other preventable diseases, as well as care during pregnancy and childbirth. At the same time, case reports from the peak of the epidemic in Wuhan, China suggest that an estimated 2.6 ICU beds were required per 10,000 adults. Italy has less than half that capacity and is overwhelmed. Many low-income countries, including those in sub-Saharan Africa, have less than one ICU bed per million people. Given the lack of well-funded health systems, countries in Africa are focusing on mitigation strategies to prevent COVID-19 from spreading as soon as they confirm their first cases. This includes shutting down most activities with the threat of arrest, rolling out tests to detect genetic sequences from the virus and a willingness to deploy rapid, easy-to-use tests(even if they are not as accurate as PCR tests that require lab capacity), and sequencing the genome of SARS-Cov-2 sampled from Nigeria.


                    [post_title] => How poorer countries are scrambling to prevent a coronavirus disaster
                    [post_excerpt] => 
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                    [post_modified] => 2020-08-13 22:41:13
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                    [guid] => https://covid19.dighr.org/developments/how-poorer-countries-are-scrambling-to-prevent-a-coronavirus-disaster/
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                    [post_author] => 1
                    [post_date] => 2020-04-03 12:42:50
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2020-04-03 16:42:50
                    [post_content] => 
Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of COVID-19 (Li et al, Science)


Findings


Using a model-inference framework, the authors estimates the contagiousness and proportion of undocumented infections of COVID-19 in 375 cities in China before (Jan 10-23) and after (Jan 24-Feb 8) implementation of control measures in Wuhan (including: travel restrictions self-quarantine and contact precautions, access to rapid testing and PPE). The effective reproduction number (Re), i.e. number of secondary infections per index infection, was 2.4. The authors estimate that before control measures, 86% of all infections were undocumented, estimated to be about half (55%) as contagious as reported infections. After Control Measures, the proportion of undocumented infections fell to 31-35%, while the Re decreased to 0.99-1.4.


Interpretation


Although inference results should be interpreted with caution, the study suggests that control measures in Wuhan as of Jan 23 altered the epidemiological characteristics of the outbreak.


                    [post_title] => Research: Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of COVID-19 
                    [post_excerpt] => 
                    [post_status] => publish
                    [comment_status] => closed
                    [ping_status] => closed
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                    [post_name] => research-substantial-undocumented-infection-facilitates-the-rapid-dissemination-of-covid-19
                    [to_ping] => 
                    [pinged] => 
                    [post_modified] => 2020-08-13 22:42:39
                    [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-14 02:42:39
                    [post_content_filtered] => 
                    [post_parent] => 0
                    [guid] => https://covid19.dighr.org/developments/research-substantial-undocumented-infection-facilitates-the-rapid-dissemination-of-covid-19/
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            [5] => WP_Post Object
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                    [ID] => 2579
                    [post_author] => 1
                    [post_date] => 2020-04-03 12:41:50
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2020-04-03 16:41:50
                    [post_content] => 
Identifying Locations with Possible Undetected Imported Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Cases by Using Importation Predictions (De Salazar et al, CDC Early Release)


Findings


The aim was to identify locations with likely undetected or under-detected imported cases of COVID-19. The results suggest that locations above the 95% PI of imported-and-reported cases could have higher case-detection capacity. Locations below the 95% PI might have undetected cases because of expected imported-and-reported case counts under high surveillance. Under-detection of cases could increase the international spread of the outbreak because the transmission chain could be lost, reducing opportunities to deploy case-based control strategies.


Interpretation


They recommend rapid strengthening of outbreak surveillance and control efforts in locations below the 95% PI lower bound to curb potential local transmission. Early detection of cases and implantation of appropriate control measures can reduce the risk for self-sustained transmission in all locations


                    [post_title] => Research: Identifying Locations with Possible Undetected Imported Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Cases by Using Importation Predictions
                    [post_excerpt] => 
                    [post_status] => publish
                    [comment_status] => closed
                    [ping_status] => closed
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                    [post_name] => research-identifying-locations-with-possible-undetected-imported-severe-acute-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-2-cases-by-using-importation-predictions
                    [to_ping] => 
                    [pinged] => 
                    [post_modified] => 2020-08-13 22:42:39
                    [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-14 02:42:39
                    [post_content_filtered] => 
                    [post_parent] => 0
                    [guid] => https://covid19.dighr.org/developments/research-identifying-locations-with-possible-undetected-imported-severe-acute-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-2-cases-by-using-importation-predictions/
                    [menu_order] => 0
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            [6] => WP_Post Object
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                    [ID] => 2578
                    [post_author] => 1
                    [post_date] => 2020-04-03 12:40:50
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2020-04-03 16:40:50
                    [post_content] => 
Canada Needs to Rapidly Escalate Public Health Interventions for Its COVID-19 Mitigation Strategies (Wu et al, SSRN)


Findings


The initial growth rate in Italy (0.22) has reduced to 0.1 two weeks after the lockdown (8 Mar 2020). This corresponds to an extension of the doubling time from about 3.15 to almost 7 days. In comparison, the growth rate in Canada has increased from 0.13 from 1 March to 13 March up to 0.25 between 13 March to 22 March. This current growth rate corresponds to a doubling time of 2.7 days, and unless public health interventions escalate in Canada, we project 15,000 cases by March 31st. The case number can be reduced to 4,000 if escalated public health interventions can be implemented instantly to reduce the growth rate to 0.1, the same level achieved in Italy.


Interpretation


Intervention measures implemented by different countries have had various effects in reducing the growth rate and extending the doubling time, but their impacts come with a substantial delay (up to two weeks). Prompt and farsighted interventions are critical to counteract the very rapid initial growth of the COVID-19 epidemic. Mitigation plans must take into account the delayed effect of interventions by up to two weeks and the short doubling time of 3 to 4 days.


                    [post_title] => Research: Canada Needs to Rapidly Escalate Public Health Interventions for Its COVID-19 Mitigation Strategies
                    [post_excerpt] => 
                    [post_status] => publish
                    [comment_status] => closed
                    [ping_status] => closed
                    [post_password] => 
                    [post_name] => research-canada-needs-to-rapidly-escalate-public-health-interventions-for-its-covid-19-mitigation-strategies
                    [to_ping] => 
                    [pinged] => 
                    [post_modified] => 2020-08-13 22:42:39
                    [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-14 02:42:39
                    [post_content_filtered] => 
                    [post_parent] => 0
                    [guid] => https://covid19.dighr.org/developments/research-canada-needs-to-rapidly-escalate-public-health-interventions-for-its-covid-19-mitigation-strategies/
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            [7] => WP_Post Object
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                    [ID] => 2577
                    [post_author] => 1
                    [post_date] => 2020-04-03 12:39:50
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2020-04-03 16:39:50
                    [post_content] => 
Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non- pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries (Flaxman et al, Imperial College London)


Findings


This study attempts to infer the impact of different interventions across 11 European countries using a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model. The authors estimate that through the end of March, interventions taken by countries likely averted 59,000 deaths while reducing reproduction numbers. During this period, the authors also estimate that 7-43 million people may have been infected across the 11 countries (or approx. 2-11% of total population). Spain and Italy are estimated to have the highest attack rate, with Germany and Norway on the lower end (possibly reflecting the relative stages of the epidemics.


Interpretation


While the two to three-week delay between transmission changes and observed impact on mortality make it difficult to evaluate the effectiveness of recent interventions, the authors urge that preliminary evidence suggests that current interventions remain in place and that trends in cases and deaths be closely monitored to provide reassurance that transmission is slowing.


                    [post_title] => Research: Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non- pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries
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                    [post_date] => 2020-04-03 12:38:50
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Latest WHO COVID-19 Situation Report 74 (3 April 2020)


                    [post_title] => WHO COVID-19 Situation Report 74
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                    [post_date] => 2020-04-03 12:37:50
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The total number of cases continue to increase by at least 10% for a second day to 1,039,158, and 55,000 confirmed deaths, as of 3 April 2020 (9:25am EST).


Although the U.S. and Europe constitute over 70% of confirmed cases, the rapid increase of local clusters across low- and middle-income countries has emerged as a major concern.


CFR figures (in order of countries with the highest number of deaths)


Italy (11.4%)

Spain (8.7%)

Iran (6.5%)

U.K. (8.2%)

France (6.8%)

China (4.1%)

US (1.9%)

Netherlands (8.3%)


                    [post_title] => Stats Summary: Global
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                    [post_date] => 2020-04-03 12:36:50
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                    [post_content] => 
Pandemic activity is increasing rapidly in Africa, with reported cases growing by 185% over the past week. At least 50 countries have reporting more than 7,100 confirmed cases and 289 deaths. South Africa has reported the largest number of cases (1,462), although almost half the continent’s cases are in four Northern Africa countries, including Algeria (986), Egypt (865), Morocco (735) and Tunisia (455). Alongside sporadic imported cases, most countries are also reporting local transmission, which remains a critical risk, with at least 15 countries now reporting more than 100 cases each.


The UN and regional authorities have expressed concern over sub-Saharan Africa, as limited diagnostic testing kits and public health surveillance capacity may be masking and further exacerbate local outbreaks. Healthcare workers are also acutely at risk, with at least 123 confirmed cases. National governments have warned of limited stress tolerance of health systems to the anticipated surge in cases over the next two weeks, requesting urgent support from regional partners and the international community.


                    [post_title] => Stats Summary: Africa
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                    [post_date] => 2020-04-03 12:35:50
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While China has virtually interrupted local transmission, it remains the fifth leading country with 81,620 confirmed cases and 3,322 reported deaths. Two thirds of new infections reported in China yesterday were asymptomatic, which has been concerning as authorities have taken steps to end the lockdown of Hubei province (with Wuhan remaining under lockdown until at least April 8).


The number of reported cases and deaths in Iran, meanwhile, keep rising to 53,183 and 3,294, respectively. There are no official lockdowns in Iran’s major cities, despite internal government estimates that mortality rates could be drastically limited to 7,700 instead of the projected “tens of thousands” of deaths by adopting ‘maximum’ interventions (e.g. banning movement inside cities, quarantines).


In South Korea 35% of confirmed cases within the last two weeks have been imported cases; more stringent control measures and monitoring have gone into effect as of today to deter incoming international travel. South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore have significantly slowed new case counts, with the focus shifting to the containment of imported cases.


                    [post_title] => Stats Summary: Asia
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            [post_date] => 2020-04-19 11:19:30
            [post_date_gmt] => 2020-04-19 15:19:30
            [post_content] => 
During this unprecedented global pandemic, U.S. President Trump announced his intention to suspend funding to the WHO over accusations of mismanagement. The move has been roundly criticized by many governments and the EU, global health experts as well as the UN Secretary General. The U.S., meanwhile, has raised questions about its own handling of the pandemic, as it remains the epicentre with almost a third of all worldwide cases (644,806) and over 20% of all COVID-related deaths. The five worst affected countries (U.S., Spain, Italy, Germany, France) account for over 60% of all cases and almost 80% of deaths globally.


            [post_title] => Trump announces intention to suspend WHO funding
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