State of the Pandemic, Clinical Public Health, Canada, Europe, Italy, North America
development

Period. 30 March – 5 April 2020

Canada Needs to Rapidly Escalate Public Health Interventions for Its COVID-19 Mitigation Strategies (Wu et al, SSRN)

Findings

The initial growth rate in Italy (0.22) has reduced to 0.1 two weeks after the lockdown (8 Mar 2020). This corresponds to an extension of the doubling time from about 3.15 to almost 7 days. In comparison, the growth rate in Canada has increased from 0.13 from 1 March to 13 March up to 0.25 between 13 March to 22 March. This current growth rate corresponds to a doubling time of 2.7 days, and unless public health interventions escalate in Canada, we project 15,000 cases by March 31st. The case number can be reduced to 4,000 if escalated public health interventions can be implemented instantly to reduce the growth rate to 0.1, the same level achieved in Italy.

Interpretation

Intervention measures implemented by different countries have had various effects in reducing the growth rate and extending the doubling time, but their impacts come with a substantial delay (up to two weeks). Prompt and farsighted interventions are critical to counteract the very rapid initial growth of the COVID-19 epidemic. Mitigation plans must take into account the delayed effect of interventions by up to two weeks and the short doubling time of 3 to 4 days.

This development is part of the digest;