Research: COVID-19 pandemic in west Africa

COVID-19 pandemic in west Africa (Martinez-Alvarez et al, Lancet Global Health, 1 April 2020).

Whether warmer temperatures will slow the spread of the COVID-19 virus has been a point of much speculation. This hypothesis has led some European countries to adopt initial policies that rely on decreased transmission rates during the summer months, and the belief that African countries will face smaller epidemics than their European counterparts. No strong evidence base exists for such claims, however. The authors argue that COVID-19 has likely arrived later in west Africa than in Europe, and plot and present data that shows a similar rapid rate of community transmission in West African countries to rates of community transmission in European countries, once a case of COVID-19 has been confirmed. Nine of the25 poorest countries are in the west African region and  have poorly resourced health systems, rendering them unable to quickly scale up an epidemic response. The authors furthermore argue that the impact of a similar COVID-19 epidemic as currently seen in Europe would be devastating in west Africa.