ngq, you sexy beast! Here is a sanity check for that clean meta. ;)
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[post_date] => 2020-07-21 11:19:55
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- During its Monday media briefing, the WHO Director General outlined four types of COVID-19 outbreaks occurring globally, including countries that [1] responded rapidly and avoided large outbreaks, [2] brought large outbreaks under control, [3] overcame their first peak and are struggling with new peaks, and [4] are currently in the intense transmission phase. The last category presents the biggest immediate risk and includes ten countries that account for almost 80% of new infections, with half of these in the U.S. and Brazil alone. The rate of new infections in the U.S. does not appear to be slowing despite an increase in testing, with total cases expected to surpass 4 million this week. With over 2 million confirmed cases, the outbreak in Brazil continues to be a major concern, particularly in light of irregularities in official government figures. This led to a stand-off last month between Brazilian President Bolsonaro– who has been criticized for downplaying the pandemic despite testing positive for the virus last week – and the Supreme Court, which prompted one Justice to demand the government immediately “re-establish the daily dissemination of epidemiological data on the COVID-19 pandemic.”
- The Red Cross Red Crescent has warned that South Asia is quickly becoming the next epicentre of the pandemic, with rapidly rising cases across India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan. With the second highest number of daily new cases and over 1.1 million confirmed infections, the outbreak in India is rapidly escalating. This includes the Delhi metropolitan area that is home to 25 million people and accounts for almost half of all cases in the country. The latest projection from MIT, still under peer review, warns that India could have the largest number of cases in the next six months, with modelling scenarios estimating up to 287,000 cases per day in the absence of stronger public health measures.
- Across Africa, the number of COVID-19 infections surpassed 750,000 this week, as the over 15,000 mortalities over the past five months have now exceeded the total number of lives lost to the West African Ebola outbreak between 2014 and 2016. At least 22 African countries have seen the number of Coronavirus cases double in the last month, with at least 35 countries experiencing community transmission. With the largest number of cases on the continent, South Africa recently re-imposed a ban on the sale of alcohol to reduce avoidable injuries and the burden on hospitals, while tightening curfews and mask requirements. Fragile health systems in many countries on the continent are increasingly overwhelmed, according to the WHO Director for Africa, who called on governments and the international community to scale up public health measures such as testing, contact tracing and case isolation. There is particular fear of outbreaks among vulnerable populations such as humanitarian response locations, marginalized communities as well as elderly populations, who are on average ten times more at risk of death, although they only account for 20% of COVID-19 infections in Africa.
- Countries that previously succeeded in containing the virus are meanwhile reporting resurgence in cases, such as Hong Kong where a third wave of outbreaks prompted renewed lockdowns and physical distancing measures. A paper in the BMJ shows how COVID-19 related mortalities in Mexico have also tripled since the country began to relax lockdowns in early June despite warnings by experts and local health officials questioning official figures by the government. The cost of a subsequent lockdown in OECD countries alone has been estimated at US$1.1 trillion in additional output losses this year, which would increase five-fold if an outbreak were to occur in early 2021.
[post_title] => World is Entering a ‘New and Dangerous Phase’ of the Pandemic, WHO
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Social Distancing Works
An article in Health Affairs examines the role of social distancing measures in reducing the growth rate of the pandemic in the U.S. The authors conclude that jurisdictions with no physical distancing policies had 35 times more cases of COVID-19, and that the rate of new infections dropped the longer a physical distancing policy was in place.
COVID-19 can cause severe illness in children
A cross-sectional study in JAMA Pediatrics confirms earlier reports that COVID-19 can cause severe illness in children (CFR of 4.2), but considerably less than in adults. Similar to adult COVID-19 patients, severe cases in children are strongly associated with pre-existing comorbidities (including developmental delays, genetic anomalies, and immune suppression). A separate retrospective review in the Journal of Pediatrics, authors examined associations between underlying epidemiologic and clinical conditions with rates of hospitalization, finding positive correlations with neurological disorders (19%), cardiac conditions (9%), hematologic conditions (9%) and oncologic conditions (5%).
COVID-19 may increase frequency of Children’s Kawasaki Syndrome
Emergent reports from around the world suggest an association between a Kawaski-like syndrome and COVID infection in children. An observational cohort study in the Lancet hypothesizes that COVID-19 may be responsible for the 30-fold increase in the incidence of hyper-inflammatory syndrome Kawasaki-like disease among older children in Italy.
RCTs pending on the benefits and safety of convalescent plasma for people with COVID-19
A Cochrane Rapid Review shows that only 32 patients in seven case-series studies have been studied systematically, and there is at this time limited evidence on the benefits and safety of convalescent plasma for people with COVID-19. The review noted that 47 studies are currently underway, and 22 of these are Randomized Control Trials. Cochrane will update this clinical review on a monthly basis as trial results emerge. It notes that its review and conclusions are likely be different from its current assessment of “limited evidence.”
80% of secondary transmissions may have been caused by a small fraction of infectious individuals
A pre-print publication on Wellcome Open Research examines outbreak size outside China, and highlights the high variability across countries in the overdispersion of COVID-19 transmission. Findings suggest that 80% of secondary transmissions may have been caused by a small fraction of infectious individuals, and that the effective reproduction number could be drastically reduced by preventing relatively rare superspreading events.
Voluntary collective isolation and contact-tracing for vulnerable Indigenous Communities
The Lancet published a paper this week on a case study and potential protocols for indigenous populations in the Bolivian Amazon. The interdisciplinary study proposes a multiphase COVID-19 prevention and containment plan focused on voluntary collective isolation and contact-tracing that could be exported and adapted to local circumstances elsewhere to prevent widespread mortality in indigenous communities.
[post_title] => Research Updates
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- A new report by the World Bank projects the sharpest historic decline in global remittances could push 40-60 million people into extreme poverty
- The UNHCR warns of the impact of reduced remittances on migrants and vulnerable communities, issuing a new guidance on Cash and Voucher Assistance programs
- A UNDP report warns of the alarming increase of gender-based violence due to COVID-19
- COVID-19 Pandemic Could Have Long-Term Consequences On Women’s Health Care Access Globally, Health Workers (UNFPA)
- Care and Connection in Crisis: Feminist Strategy to Confront COVID-19 (Madre)
- Commentary: We need a feminist response to the pandemic (Devex)
- Like Zambia, more African countries seek emergency funding from the IMF
- A ban on large funerals in South Africa has forced people to give up many traditions, but they have also rediscovered old ones, including “secret burials” (BBC)
- By prioritizing Early detection, contact tracing and 28 day quarantines, Kerala’a COVID-19 fatality rate (0.53%) is the lowest in India, and has limited the spread of the virus without inflicting any of the human suffering seen in other parts of the country (Commentary: The Kerala Model (Shashi Tharoor)
- In a new commentary, Tony Blair and Agnes Kalibata highlight four global actions to increase food security during the pandemic. These including: (1) Increasing funding for food-relief and social-protection measures; (2) Investing in local agricultural production; (3) Supporting regional and local logistics hubs to limit disruptions to food and agricultural produce supply chains; and (4) Incentivizing funding of agro-processing and Agtech companies.
- DIGHR Fellow Rhonda Ferguson also argues that displacement of local food systems threaten 265 million people with famine, and that transformation in trade is urgently needed (Conversation)
- HIV and Food Insecurity: A Syndemic Amid COVID-19 (AIDS and Behaviour)
- Small-scale farmers can help build resilient food systems in post-COVID world (IFAD)
[post_title] => Snapshot of Equity & Protection
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World leaders pledge $8 billion for research into vaccine and therapies as well as equitable and timely distribution (Coronavirus Global Response Summit)
The absence of the U.S., India and Russia points to possible fractures in global health diplomacy (Washington Post)
Vaccine could be available as early as 9-24 months (Gates Foundation)
A vaccine likely won’t be available until the end of 2021 due to Phase 2 and 3 clinical trials to ensure safety and efficacy, according to the chair of the WHO Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (CNBC)
Nature: Multiple vaccines are in competition: how will scientists choose the best?
Rapid review for the anti-coronavirus effect of remdesivir (Drug Discoveries & Therapeutics)
Video: How does Gilead’s drug remdesivir work against coronavirus? (STAT)
Gilead to charge up to US$4,500 for experimental COVID-19 treatment remdesivir (Institute for Clinical and Economic Research)
WHO to engage U.S. and Gilead as data on safety and efficacy emerge to ensure wider availability of remdesivir (CNBC)
GAVI Vaccine Alliance proposes an Advanced Market Commitment program for COVID-19 vaccine (GAVI)
Internet of Things has been deployed in innovative ways to provide information and monitoring during the COVID-19 epidemic, including automated and transparent treatment (Journal of Diabetes & Metabolic Syndrome)
Emerging technologies to combat COVID-19 pandemic (J of Clinical and Experimental Hepatology)
Going Viral: how to boost the spread of coronavirus science on social media (Nature)
COVID-19 has reinforced the importance of preprints as a means for rapid research dissemination (Nature Biotechnology)
Tool: Google releases an AI-powered COVID-19 Research Explorer to assist researchers with complex queries
UK researchers create antibody test claiming 100% sensitivity, 99.8% specificity and results in 35 minutes (UK Standard)
U.S. Food and Drug Administration tighten standards for antibody testing following false specificity and sensitivity claims (WSJ)
Ethical and practical challenges of COVID-19 human vaccine trials (STAT)
Human Challenge Studies to Accelerate Coronavirus Vaccine Licensure (Journal of Infections Diseases)
WHO to issue ethical guidelines this month to inform human challenge trials amidst reports of deliberate infection of healthy human volunteers to test vaccine candidates (SCMP)
Frontier technologies for COVID-19 need better governance (WEF)
Unproven herbal remedy, ‘Madagascar Tonic’, touted by some African governments despite warnings from health officials (Globe & Mail; The Economist)
[post_title] => Snapshot of Access and R&D
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UNOCHA updated the COVID-19 Global Humanitarian Response Plan, appealing for US$6.7 billion for immediate support for pandemic response in fragile countries
COVID-19 has “unleashed a tsunami of hate and xenophobia, scapegoating and scare-mongering” around the world, according to the UN Secretary-General (Guardian)
Institute of Migration issue Communication Guidance in response to the rise of anti-migrant sentiment in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic
Local response in health emergencies: key considerations for addressing the COVID-19 pandemic in informal urban settlements (Environment and Urbanization)
A new report by Rescue International shows how restrictions on mobility, lack of information, increased isolation and fear have led to a decrease in women being able to report incidents of domestic violence.
COVID-19 on the African continent (The Lancet Infectious Diseases)
IOM Chief of Mission in the DRC reports how the experiences and capacity developed to fighting Ebola have informed the COVID-19 response
Schools remain locked for more than 127 million children in S.E. Africa (UNICEF)
There are reports that some African governments are promoting an unproven herbal remedy called ‘Madagascar Tonic’ despite warnings from health officials (Globe & Mail)
Health system quality in the time of COVID-19 (The Lancet Global Health)
Food insecurity in West Africa could leave 43 million at risk as coronavirus hits (UN News)
UNOCHA issues global attention to food insecurity in humanitarian response locations
A new report by the UNDP reveals major disparities among countries in their ability to respond and recover from the pandemic (COVID-19 and Human Development: Exploring Global Preparedness and Vulnerability)
Collateral damage of lockdown in India (BMJ)
Local response in health emergencies: key considerations for addressing the COVID-19 pandemic in informal urban settlements (Environment and Urbanization)
Slums are the next front line in the fight against the coronavirus (Devex)
Mental health and COVID-19: change the conversation (The Lancet)
UNOCHA releases Rapid Learning Review that outlines 14 actions, insights and concepts for humanitarian actors in their COVID-19 responses (ALNAP)
The threat of COVID-19 in Syrian war refugee camps (Travel Medicine & Infectious Disease)
Emerging challenges of securing mental well-being in conflict settings (Asian Journal of Psychiatry)
UNOCHA issues global attention to food insecurity in humanitarian response locations
Human rights approach to Emergency Response? Advocacy of Canada’s Human Rights Commissions During the COVID-19 Crisis (Canadian Journal of Political Science)
Institute of Migration issue Communication Guidance in response to the rise of anti-migrant sentiment in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic
Prisons have become ‘petri dishes,’ as inmates are unable to guard against virus (KHN)
Coronavirus abuse fears for women in South Sudan (New Humanitarian)
UN Women issues a Guidance Document on promoting gender-responsive participation in humanitarian settings (UN Women)
In Haiti, women’s organizations are at the heart of the response to COVID-19 (CECI)
[post_title] => Snapshot of Equity & Protection
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[post_date] => 2020-05-03 16:02:23
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The doubling rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases dropped to once every 21 days from a high of once every 7 days on April 1. As some countries experience stabilizing or declining national death tolls, it has prompted attempts to loosen lockdown measures. This includes France, Italy and Spain, three of the world’s hardest hit countries (accounting for 20% of cases and a third of all COVID-related deaths worldwide). Germany is begun to relax lockdown measures, as face masks have become mandatory in public. The National Health Service of the United Kingdom set out a six-week plan to ‘return to normal’ following projections that the U.K. has ‘likely survived the first wave’ of the pandemic and will get close to testing targets. Despite a record daily increase in confirmed cases,South Africa restarted some mining operations, as India has also begun to ease lockdown measures following a drop in reported
As some Asian-Pacific countries such as Singapore experience major outbreaks in the second wave of transmission, hospitals across Europe have raised concerns. The WHO noted that many states also do not have adequate testing capacity needed to support a safe reopening strategy that can detect, trace and isolate new COVID transmission. China has meanwhile provided a guide on how countries can prevent a second wave, including compulsory masks in public, fines for failure to exercise public hygiene practices, as well as public markings for social distancing lanes.
The LSHTM is gathering data on hundreds of intervention measures from around the world to determine factors contributing to disease outbreak as well as relative effectiveness of control strategies. For example, to date, Hong Kong’s swift surveillance, quarantine and social-distancing measures – such as the use of face masks and school closures – helped to cut Coronavirus transmission with only 4 deaths in a (urban) population of 7.5 million. The LSHTM platform is being developed to support the WHO’s technical support to member states, and includes more than 1,100 volunteers, multiple universities, public health organizations and non-profits, including ACAPS which analyses humanitarian crises.
[post_title] => ‘The second wave is in our hands’: WHO
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[post_date] => 2020-04-19 11:30:30
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Earlier today, China increased the number of COVID-related deaths in Wuhan by 50%, raising the country’s toll by 1,300 to 4,632. While the government claims this reflects updated hospital counts as well as those who died at home, the revision in the reported figures partially validates accusations of under-reporting, including by intelligence agencies. The broader challenge is that most models of the pandemic are based on prior figures from China and may need to be revised to reflect these significant adjustments.
In China, a cluster of cases linked to the Nigerian community in Guangzhou has also sparked alleged discrimination towards Africans by locals and virus prevention officials.
Asian-Pacific countries are beginning to experience second waves of infections, including Singapore which is reporting the highest case rate in the region (500 cases per million people). Despite these spikes, the “suppress and lift” strategy of aggressive testing, isolation, and contact tracing by countries such as Singapore and Hong Kong remains a model response and has helped prevent exponential spread.
In Iran, the number of reported cases and deaths approach 80,000 and 5,000, respectively. Fearing a protracted economic crisis, some “low-risk” businesses were allowed to open, prompting concerns of a second wave of infections. The government has asked for economic support and sanction relief from the IMF, which the U.S. has thus far blocked despite international pressure to sideline geopolitical tensions to allow countries to respond to the pandemic.
With 13,835 confirmed cases, India has become the third Asian country to surpass the 10,000 mark. Like in Pakistan (7,025) and Bangladesh (1,838), the true outbreak size is expected to be significantly higher in India due to varying testing and counting strategies. In India, the government has extended the nation-wide lockdown until May 3, while food shortages and a mass exodus from major urban areas has raised concern about local transmission in rural parts of the country. There are positive reports that some states like Kerala have managed to bend the curve by adopting “aggressive testing, contact tracing, and cooked meals.”
[post_title] => Regional Snapshot: Asia
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Short-term forecasts of COVID-19 deaths in multiple countries
Imperial College London, 8 April 2020
https://sangeetabhatia03.github.io/covid19-short-term-forecasts/index.html
This weekly report by Imperial College London presents forecasts of transmission and mortality estimates over the coming week for 42 countries with active transmission, accounting for the impact of control measures. The caveat with these forecasts is that accuracy varies with the quality of surveillance and reporting, i.e. presenting likely underestimates for countries with poor reporting. That said, based on transmissibility estimates, the COVID-19 epidemic is expected to demonstrate:
- Stabilizing patterns in 14 countries (including Italy, Iran, Iraq, South Korea);
- Slow-growth transmission (1<Rt<2) in Spain and Netherlands; and
- Rapidly growing transmission (Rt>2) across 26 countries (including Algeria, Brazil, Canada, China, Egypt, France, Germany, India, Japan, Peru, Turkey, U.K. and U.S.).
Based on central forecasting trends, reported deaths in the coming week are expected to be:
- Relatively small (<100) and large (100-1000) in 29 countries;
- Large (1,000-5,000) in 8 countries (including Algeria, Brazil, Germany, Iran, and Turkey); and
- Very large (5,000+) in 5 countries (France, Italy, Spain, U.K. and U.S).
New COVID-19 forecasts for Europe: Italy & Spain have passed the peak of their epidemics; UK, early in its epidemic, faces a fast-mounting death toll
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, 7 April 2020
http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/new-covid-19-forecasts-europe-italy-spain-have-passed-peak-their-epidemics-uk-early-its
New COVID-19 forecast from IHME found that among European nations, the peak daily death rate from the pandemic will occur during the third week of April, with the pandemic spreading from Southern Europe. According to current trajectories, 151,680 COVID-19 deaths could occur during the “first wave” of the pandemic in Europe, while the U.S. is expected to face 81,766 deaths. Declines in deaths are now occurring in Italy and Spain as most regions in the two countries have passed their peaks in the number of deaths, while other nations are approaching their peaks and still others facing peak mortality later in April. The death toll in many countries is compounded by demand for hospital resources well in excess of what is available. Predicted peaks in daily COVID-19 deaths appear to be highly variable among EEA countries, likely reflecting the equally variable ways that the novel coronavirus initially spread and then continued to affect Europe.
Projecting hospital utilization during the COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States
Moghadas et al, National Academy of Sciences, 3 April 2020
https://www.pnas.org/content/117/16/9122
Findings
Without isolation and with R0 = 2.5, treatment of critically ill patients at the outbreak peak would require 3.8x more ICU beds than exist in the U.S. (or 2x if R0 = 2). With self-isolation by 20% of cases within 24 hours of symptom onset, the outbreak trajectory would delay and flatten, and the number of ICU beds needed at the peak would reduce by 48.4% (or 73.5% if R0 = 2).
Interpretation
Hand washing and self-isolation is shown to significantly contribute to reducing the rate of spread of COVID-19, and therefore reducing the number of ICU beds needed at any one time. This could facilitate emergency mobilization to expand mobilization of critical care capacity to handle the burgeoning outbreak.
[post_title] => Research on Forecasting Peak Transmission and Health System Utilization
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[post_date] => 2020-04-03 12:30:50
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In addition to wide-spread reports of food shortages in India, the nationwide 21-day lockdown has led to a mass exodus of hundreds of thousands of people from major urban areas, increasing the risk of local transmission in rural parts of the country.
There is concern that the true outbreak size in India may be significantly higher than the 2,567 confirmed cases, which has doubled in just two days.
[post_title] => Urban mass exodus in India
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A number of countries including Iran, China and Japan are also increasingly facing questions about official reports of case counts and mortality figures, as modelling estimates and informal proxy indicators (e.g. total mortality, demand for funeral services, local and social media accounts, etc.) suggest real figures may be significantly higher. There is likewise concern that the true outbreak size in India may be significantly higher than the 2,567 confirmed cases, which has doubled in just two days.
[post_title] => Official numbers of reported cases and deaths are questioned
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Several Asian-Pacific countries have seen overnight changes or escalating reports: Thailand, Hong Kong, India, Philippines, Indonesia, New Zealand, and Singapore.
South Korea has slowly decreased daily new case counts to around 100-150 since March 12, although they have reported an increase in imported cases.
[post_title] => Overnight changes in Asian-Pacific countries
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[post_date] => 2020-07-21 11:19:55
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- During its Monday media briefing, the WHO Director General outlined four types of COVID-19 outbreaks occurring globally, including countries that [1] responded rapidly and avoided large outbreaks, [2] brought large outbreaks under control, [3] overcame their first peak and are struggling with new peaks, and [4] are currently in the intense transmission phase. The last category presents the biggest immediate risk and includes ten countries that account for almost 80% of new infections, with half of these in the U.S. and Brazil alone. The rate of new infections in the U.S. does not appear to be slowing despite an increase in testing, with total cases expected to surpass 4 million this week. With over 2 million confirmed cases, the outbreak in Brazil continues to be a major concern, particularly in light of irregularities in official government figures. This led to a stand-off last month between Brazilian President Bolsonaro– who has been criticized for downplaying the pandemic despite testing positive for the virus last week – and the Supreme Court, which prompted one Justice to demand the government immediately “re-establish the daily dissemination of epidemiological data on the COVID-19 pandemic.”
- The Red Cross Red Crescent has warned that South Asia is quickly becoming the next epicentre of the pandemic, with rapidly rising cases across India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan. With the second highest number of daily new cases and over 1.1 million confirmed infections, the outbreak in India is rapidly escalating. This includes the Delhi metropolitan area that is home to 25 million people and accounts for almost half of all cases in the country. The latest projection from MIT, still under peer review, warns that India could have the largest number of cases in the next six months, with modelling scenarios estimating up to 287,000 cases per day in the absence of stronger public health measures.
- Across Africa, the number of COVID-19 infections surpassed 750,000 this week, as the over 15,000 mortalities over the past five months have now exceeded the total number of lives lost to the West African Ebola outbreak between 2014 and 2016. At least 22 African countries have seen the number of Coronavirus cases double in the last month, with at least 35 countries experiencing community transmission. With the largest number of cases on the continent, South Africa recently re-imposed a ban on the sale of alcohol to reduce avoidable injuries and the burden on hospitals, while tightening curfews and mask requirements. Fragile health systems in many countries on the continent are increasingly overwhelmed, according to the WHO Director for Africa, who called on governments and the international community to scale up public health measures such as testing, contact tracing and case isolation. There is particular fear of outbreaks among vulnerable populations such as humanitarian response locations, marginalized communities as well as elderly populations, who are on average ten times more at risk of death, although they only account for 20% of COVID-19 infections in Africa.
- Countries that previously succeeded in containing the virus are meanwhile reporting resurgence in cases, such as Hong Kong where a third wave of outbreaks prompted renewed lockdowns and physical distancing measures. A paper in the BMJ shows how COVID-19 related mortalities in Mexico have also tripled since the country began to relax lockdowns in early June despite warnings by experts and local health officials questioning official figures by the government. The cost of a subsequent lockdown in OECD countries alone has been estimated at US$1.1 trillion in additional output losses this year, which would increase five-fold if an outbreak were to occur in early 2021.
[post_title] => World is Entering a ‘New and Dangerous Phase’ of the Pandemic, WHO
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