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ngq, you sexy beast! Here is a sanity check for that clean meta. ;)
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                    [post_date] => 2020-05-10 16:11:22
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2020-05-10 20:11:22
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An article in The Lancet (Has COVID-19 subverted global health?) emphasize the importance of context and equity as key principles of global health. In light of limited financial aid from wealthier countries, the authors urge developing countries to adopt policies that reflect their local context that focus on what is possible, acceptable, just, and sustainable.


What accounts was South Korea’s COVID Secret? Fast Testing, High-Tech Tracing, Zero-Tolerance Isolation (Atlantic)


Lockdown Is a Blunt Tool, We Have a Sharper One: Contact Tracing (NYT)


WHO issues a Technical Guidance on Contact Tracing for COVID-19 in Africa (WHO)


The U.S. can expect a series of ‘mini-epidemics’, as the flattening curve is misleading, as the CIDRP outlines three potential futures: recurring small outbreaks, monster wave, persistent crisis (NYT)


Where the latest models think we are headed and why they disagree (FiveThirtyEight)


Reopening some states can heighten risk of or recurring second waves in others (STAT)


Simulation: Ending restrictions earlier is associated with higher projected cases and deaths, but also quicker economic recovery according to a RAND Corporation online tool


In the New England Journal of Medicine, the authors provide two lessons in the Italian response to the pandemic, highlighting the important of testing of health care workers, and how “urgent and decisive” lockdown of the region earlier could have contain the epidemic (Adaptations and Lessons in the Province of Bergamio)


National Geographic reviews the lessons learned from national responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, including the spread of social mitigation, the effectiveness of travel restrictions, testing and the impact of speed of response on outbreak trajectory (How to measure your nation’s response to coronavirus).


It took the U.S. only seven days to exceed projected COVID-19 deaths for August (Newsweek)


A new paper in the Journal of Risk Research (Resilience in the face of uncertainty) describe how political interference undermined the ability of the U.K. National Health Service with COVID-19 preparedness and response. Similar to the Bank of England, the authors argue that national emergency preparedness requires greater independence.


While the full impact of the pandemic on food security remains unknown, Dr. Rhonda Ferguson (DIGHR Research Fellow) argues that the displacement of localized food systems require transformation in trade to protect the estimated 265 million people threatened by famine (Coronavirus: Another chance to transform the global food trade)


COVID-19 and Globalization (One Health)


Could COVID-19 mark a ‘turning point’ in the climate crisis? (WEF)


Effective transmission across the globe: the role of climate in COVID-19 mitigation strategies (Lancet Planetary Health)


Iran’s locust threats grow amid coronavirus pandemic, sanctions (New Humanitarian)


As the number of cases in Iran top 100,000, the spokesperson for the Health Ministry expressed concern in the “rising trend” over the least three days (Daily Star Lebanon)


Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) Declaration for COVID-19 extended (WHO)


Why we can’t compare country responses to COVID-19: death rates, data and geography (WEF)


                    [post_title] => Snapshot of the State of the Pandemic
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                    [post_date] => 2020-04-19 11:30:30
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2020-04-19 15:26:30
                    [post_content] => 
Earlier today, China increased the number of COVID-related deaths in Wuhan by 50%, raising the country’s toll by 1,300 to 4,632. While the government claims this reflects updated hospital counts as well as those who died at home, the revision in the reported figures partially validates accusations of under-reporting, including by intelligence agencies. The broader challenge is that most models of the pandemic are based on prior figures from China and may need to be revised to reflect these significant adjustments.


In China, a cluster of cases linked to the Nigerian community in Guangzhou has also sparked alleged discrimination towards Africans by locals and virus prevention officials.


Asian-Pacific countries are beginning to experience second waves of infections, including Singapore which is reporting the highest case rate in the region (500 cases per million people). Despite these spikes, the “suppress and lift” strategy of aggressive testing, isolation, and contact tracing by countries such as Singapore and Hong Kong remains a model response and has helped prevent exponential spread.


In Iran, the number of reported cases and deaths approach 80,000 and 5,000, respectively. Fearing a protracted economic crisis, some “low-risk” businesses were allowed to open, prompting concerns of a second wave of infections. The government has asked for economic support and sanction relief from the IMF, which the U.S. has thus far blocked despite international pressure to sideline geopolitical tensions to allow countries to respond to the pandemic.


With 13,835 confirmed cases, India has become the third Asian country to surpass the 10,000 mark. Like in Pakistan (7,025) and Bangladesh (1,838), the true outbreak size is expected to be significantly higher in India due to varying testing and counting strategies. In India, the government has extended the nation-wide lockdown until May 3, while food shortages and a mass exodus from major urban areas has raised concern about local transmission in rural parts of the country. There are positive reports that some states like Kerala have managed to bend the curve by adopting “aggressive testing, contact tracing, and cooked meals.”


                    [post_title] => Regional Snapshot: Asia
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                    [post_content] => 
Short-term forecasts of COVID-19 deaths in multiple countries


Imperial College London, 8 April 2020


https://sangeetabhatia03.github.io/covid19-short-term-forecasts/index.html


This weekly report by Imperial College London presents forecasts of transmission and mortality estimates over the coming week for 42 countries with active transmission, accounting for the impact of control measures. The caveat with these forecasts is that accuracy varies with the quality of surveillance and reporting, i.e. presenting likely underestimates for countries with poor reporting. That said, based on transmissibility estimates, the COVID-19 epidemic is expected to demonstrate:


    

  • Stabilizing patterns in 14 countries (including Italy, Iran, Iraq, South Korea);
    • 

  • Slow-growth transmission (1<Rt<2) in Spain and Netherlands; and
    • 

  • Rapidly growing transmission (Rt>2) across 26 countries (including Algeria, Brazil, Canada, China, Egypt, France, Germany, India, Japan, Peru, Turkey, U.K. and U.S.).
    • 



Based on central forecasting trends, reported deaths in the coming week are expected to be:


    

  • Relatively small (<100) and large (100-1000) in 29 countries;
    • 

  • Large (1,000-5,000) in 8 countries (including Algeria, Brazil, Germany, Iran, and Turkey); and
    • 

  • Very large (5,000+) in 5 countries (France, Italy, Spain, U.K. and U.S).
    • 



New COVID-19 forecasts for Europe: Italy & Spain have passed the peak of their epidemics; UK, early in its epidemic, faces a fast-mounting death toll


Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, 7 April 2020


http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/new-covid-19-forecasts-europe-italy-spain-have-passed-peak-their-epidemics-uk-early-its


New COVID-19 forecast from IHME found that among European nations, the peak daily death rate from the pandemic will occur during the third week of April, with the pandemic spreading from Southern Europe. According to current trajectories, 151,680 COVID-19 deaths could occur during the “first wave” of the pandemic in Europe, while the U.S. is expected to face 81,766 deaths. Declines in deaths are now occurring in Italy and Spain as most regions in the two countries have passed their peaks in the number of deaths, while other nations are approaching their peaks and still others facing peak mortality later in April. The death toll in many countries is compounded by demand for hospital resources well in excess of what is available. Predicted peaks in daily COVID-19 deaths appear to be highly variable among EEA countries, likely reflecting the equally variable ways that the novel coronavirus initially spread and then continued to affect Europe.


Projecting hospital utilization during the COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States


Moghadas et al, National Academy of Sciences, 3 April 2020


https://www.pnas.org/content/117/16/9122


Findings


Without isolation and with R0 = 2.5, treatment of critically ill patients at the outbreak peak would require 3.8x more ICU beds than exist in the U.S. (or 2x if R0 = 2). With self-isolation by 20% of cases within 24 hours of symptom onset, the outbreak trajectory would delay and flatten, and the number of ICU beds needed at the peak would reduce by 48.4% (or 73.5% if R0 = 2).


Interpretation


Hand washing and self-isolation is shown to significantly contribute to reducing the rate of spread of COVID-19, and therefore reducing the number of ICU beds needed at any one time. This could facilitate emergency mobilization to expand mobilization of critical care capacity to handle the burgeoning outbreak.


                    [post_title] => Research on Forecasting Peak Transmission and Health System Utilization
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                    [post_date] => 2020-04-03 12:37:50
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The total number of cases continue to increase by at least 10% for a second day to 1,039,158, and 55,000 confirmed deaths, as of 3 April 2020 (9:25am EST).


Although the U.S. and Europe constitute over 70% of confirmed cases, the rapid increase of local clusters across low- and middle-income countries has emerged as a major concern.


CFR figures (in order of countries with the highest number of deaths)


Italy (11.4%)

Spain (8.7%)

Iran (6.5%)

U.K. (8.2%)

France (6.8%)

China (4.1%)

US (1.9%)

Netherlands (8.3%)


                    [post_title] => Stats Summary: Global
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                    [post_date] => 2020-04-03 12:35:50
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While China has virtually interrupted local transmission, it remains the fifth leading country with 81,620 confirmed cases and 3,322 reported deaths. Two thirds of new infections reported in China yesterday were asymptomatic, which has been concerning as authorities have taken steps to end the lockdown of Hubei province (with Wuhan remaining under lockdown until at least April 8).


The number of reported cases and deaths in Iran, meanwhile, keep rising to 53,183 and 3,294, respectively. There are no official lockdowns in Iran’s major cities, despite internal government estimates that mortality rates could be drastically limited to 7,700 instead of the projected “tens of thousands” of deaths by adopting ‘maximum’ interventions (e.g. banning movement inside cities, quarantines).


In South Korea 35% of confirmed cases within the last two weeks have been imported cases; more stringent control measures and monitoring have gone into effect as of today to deter incoming international travel. South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore have significantly slowed new case counts, with the focus shifting to the containment of imported cases.


                    [post_title] => Stats Summary: Asia
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                    [post_date] => 2020-04-03 12:24:50
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Countries are increasingly adopting the WHO’s main advice to “test, test, test,” with total number of tests performed increasing 42% over the past week, as of April 1. Limited availability of diagnostic kits and laboratories in many low- and middle-income countries remain a critical concern and is almost certainly masking more widespread local transmission.


Similar to prior pandemics, high initial Case Fatality Rates for COVID-19 are expected to trend downwards over time as countries adopt more wide-spread population testing (i.e. recording those dying with as opposed to from the virus). This is reflected in these CFR figures (in order of countries with the highest number of deaths), as of 3 April: Italy (12%), Spain (9.1%), U.S. (2.4%), France (7.1%), China (4.1%), Iran (6.3%)


                    [post_title] => More countries are adopting the WHO's number advice to "test, test, test"
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A number of countries including Iran, China and Japan are also increasingly facing questions about official reports of case counts and mortality figures, as modelling estimates and informal proxy indicators (e.g. total mortality, demand for funeral services, local and social media accounts, etc.) suggest real figures may be significantly higher. There is likewise concern that the true outbreak size in India may be significantly higher than the 2,567 confirmed cases, which has doubled in just two days.


                    [post_title] => Official numbers of reported cases and deaths are questioned
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                    [post_date] => 2020-03-29 10:54:16
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                    [post_content] => 
The pandemic continues to grow exponentially. As of March 25, It took only 6 days for the global case number to double from 200,000 to over 400,000 (and 2 days from 300,000 to 400,000).


At least 650,567 cases and 30,299 deaths have been reported in 199 countries as of March 28 at 2:30pm EST. Europe and the U.S. account for almost two thirds of all cases globally.  There is growing alarm, however, as case reports are increasing in many low- and middle-income countries.


Select Case Fatality Rates (for countries with at least 50 deaths)


Worldwide: 4.7%

Italy: 10.6%

Spain: 7.9%

Iran: 7.1%

China: 4.1%

France: 6.1%

US: 1.6%

South Korea: 1.5%

Canada: 1.2%

Germany: 0.7%


                    [post_title] => Global rise is exponential
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                    [post_date] => 2020-03-29 10:48:16
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The number of cases and deaths in Iran keep growing with total number of cases increasing to 32,332 and the death toll is 2,926. More than half of all Iranian government employees are staying home as part of measures to contain the outbreak. The government has not imposed any travel ban or lockdowns. The significant translocation of the population for the Persian New Year holidays is of concern as it may lead to continued intra-country/provincial exportations of the virus.


                    [post_title] => Growing numbers of cases and deaths in Iran
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            [post_date_gmt] => 2020-05-10 20:11:22
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An article in The Lancet (Has COVID-19 subverted global health?) emphasize the importance of context and equity as key principles of global health. In light of limited financial aid from wealthier countries, the authors urge developing countries to adopt policies that reflect their local context that focus on what is possible, acceptable, just, and sustainable.


What accounts was South Korea’s COVID Secret? Fast Testing, High-Tech Tracing, Zero-Tolerance Isolation (Atlantic)


Lockdown Is a Blunt Tool, We Have a Sharper One: Contact Tracing (NYT)


WHO issues a Technical Guidance on Contact Tracing for COVID-19 in Africa (WHO)


The U.S. can expect a series of ‘mini-epidemics’, as the flattening curve is misleading, as the CIDRP outlines three potential futures: recurring small outbreaks, monster wave, persistent crisis (NYT)


Where the latest models think we are headed and why they disagree (FiveThirtyEight)


Reopening some states can heighten risk of or recurring second waves in others (STAT)


Simulation: Ending restrictions earlier is associated with higher projected cases and deaths, but also quicker economic recovery according to a RAND Corporation online tool


In the New England Journal of Medicine, the authors provide two lessons in the Italian response to the pandemic, highlighting the important of testing of health care workers, and how “urgent and decisive” lockdown of the region earlier could have contain the epidemic (Adaptations and Lessons in the Province of Bergamio)


National Geographic reviews the lessons learned from national responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, including the spread of social mitigation, the effectiveness of travel restrictions, testing and the impact of speed of response on outbreak trajectory (How to measure your nation’s response to coronavirus).


It took the U.S. only seven days to exceed projected COVID-19 deaths for August (Newsweek)


A new paper in the Journal of Risk Research (Resilience in the face of uncertainty) describe how political interference undermined the ability of the U.K. National Health Service with COVID-19 preparedness and response. Similar to the Bank of England, the authors argue that national emergency preparedness requires greater independence.


While the full impact of the pandemic on food security remains unknown, Dr. Rhonda Ferguson (DIGHR Research Fellow) argues that the displacement of localized food systems require transformation in trade to protect the estimated 265 million people threatened by famine (Coronavirus: Another chance to transform the global food trade)


COVID-19 and Globalization (One Health)


Could COVID-19 mark a ‘turning point’ in the climate crisis? (WEF)


Effective transmission across the globe: the role of climate in COVID-19 mitigation strategies (Lancet Planetary Health)


Iran’s locust threats grow amid coronavirus pandemic, sanctions (New Humanitarian)


As the number of cases in Iran top 100,000, the spokesperson for the Health Ministry expressed concern in the “rising trend” over the least three days (Daily Star Lebanon)


Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) Declaration for COVID-19 extended (WHO)


Why we can’t compare country responses to COVID-19: death rates, data and geography (WEF)


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