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ngq, you sexy beast! Here is a sanity check for that clean meta. ;)
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                    [post_date] => 2020-04-03 12:40:50
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2020-04-03 16:40:50
                    [post_content] => 
Canada Needs to Rapidly Escalate Public Health Interventions for Its COVID-19 Mitigation Strategies (Wu et al, SSRN)


Findings


The initial growth rate in Italy (0.22) has reduced to 0.1 two weeks after the lockdown (8 Mar 2020). This corresponds to an extension of the doubling time from about 3.15 to almost 7 days. In comparison, the growth rate in Canada has increased from 0.13 from 1 March to 13 March up to 0.25 between 13 March to 22 March. This current growth rate corresponds to a doubling time of 2.7 days, and unless public health interventions escalate in Canada, we project 15,000 cases by March 31st. The case number can be reduced to 4,000 if escalated public health interventions can be implemented instantly to reduce the growth rate to 0.1, the same level achieved in Italy.


Interpretation


Intervention measures implemented by different countries have had various effects in reducing the growth rate and extending the doubling time, but their impacts come with a substantial delay (up to two weeks). Prompt and farsighted interventions are critical to counteract the very rapid initial growth of the COVID-19 epidemic. Mitigation plans must take into account the delayed effect of interventions by up to two weeks and the short doubling time of 3 to 4 days.


                    [post_title] => Research: Canada Needs to Rapidly Escalate Public Health Interventions for Its COVID-19 Mitigation Strategies
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                    [post_modified] => 2020-08-13 22:42:39
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                    [guid] => https://covid19.dighr.org/developments/research-canada-needs-to-rapidly-escalate-public-health-interventions-for-its-covid-19-mitigation-strategies/
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                    [post_date] => 2020-04-03 12:39:50
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2020-04-03 16:39:50
                    [post_content] => 
Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non- pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries (Flaxman et al, Imperial College London)


Findings


This study attempts to infer the impact of different interventions across 11 European countries using a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model. The authors estimate that through the end of March, interventions taken by countries likely averted 59,000 deaths while reducing reproduction numbers. During this period, the authors also estimate that 7-43 million people may have been infected across the 11 countries (or approx. 2-11% of total population). Spain and Italy are estimated to have the highest attack rate, with Germany and Norway on the lower end (possibly reflecting the relative stages of the epidemics.


Interpretation


While the two to three-week delay between transmission changes and observed impact on mortality make it difficult to evaluate the effectiveness of recent interventions, the authors urge that preliminary evidence suggests that current interventions remain in place and that trends in cases and deaths be closely monitored to provide reassurance that transmission is slowing.


                    [post_title] => Research: Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non- pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries
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                    [post_date] => 2020-04-03 12:38:50
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2020-04-03 16:38:50
                    [post_content] => 
Latest WHO COVID-19 Situation Report 74 (3 April 2020)


                    [post_title] => WHO COVID-19 Situation Report 74
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                    [post_date] => 2020-04-03 12:37:50
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2020-04-03 16:37:50
                    [post_content] => 
The total number of cases continue to increase by at least 10% for a second day to 1,039,158, and 55,000 confirmed deaths, as of 3 April 2020 (9:25am EST).


Although the U.S. and Europe constitute over 70% of confirmed cases, the rapid increase of local clusters across low- and middle-income countries has emerged as a major concern.


CFR figures (in order of countries with the highest number of deaths)


Italy (11.4%)

Spain (8.7%)

Iran (6.5%)

U.K. (8.2%)

France (6.8%)

China (4.1%)

US (1.9%)

Netherlands (8.3%)


                    [post_title] => Stats Summary: Global
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                    [post_modified] => 2020-08-13 22:42:39
                    [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-14 02:42:39
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                    [post_date] => 2020-04-03 12:36:50
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2020-04-03 16:36:50
                    [post_content] => 
Pandemic activity is increasing rapidly in Africa, with reported cases growing by 185% over the past week. At least 50 countries have reporting more than 7,100 confirmed cases and 289 deaths. South Africa has reported the largest number of cases (1,462), although almost half the continent’s cases are in four Northern Africa countries, including Algeria (986), Egypt (865), Morocco (735) and Tunisia (455). Alongside sporadic imported cases, most countries are also reporting local transmission, which remains a critical risk, with at least 15 countries now reporting more than 100 cases each.


The UN and regional authorities have expressed concern over sub-Saharan Africa, as limited diagnostic testing kits and public health surveillance capacity may be masking and further exacerbate local outbreaks. Healthcare workers are also acutely at risk, with at least 123 confirmed cases. National governments have warned of limited stress tolerance of health systems to the anticipated surge in cases over the next two weeks, requesting urgent support from regional partners and the international community.


                    [post_title] => Stats Summary: Africa
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                    [post_date] => 2020-04-03 12:35:50
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2020-04-03 16:35:50
                    [post_content] => 
While China has virtually interrupted local transmission, it remains the fifth leading country with 81,620 confirmed cases and 3,322 reported deaths. Two thirds of new infections reported in China yesterday were asymptomatic, which has been concerning as authorities have taken steps to end the lockdown of Hubei province (with Wuhan remaining under lockdown until at least April 8).


The number of reported cases and deaths in Iran, meanwhile, keep rising to 53,183 and 3,294, respectively. There are no official lockdowns in Iran’s major cities, despite internal government estimates that mortality rates could be drastically limited to 7,700 instead of the projected “tens of thousands” of deaths by adopting ‘maximum’ interventions (e.g. banning movement inside cities, quarantines).


In South Korea 35% of confirmed cases within the last two weeks have been imported cases; more stringent control measures and monitoring have gone into effect as of today to deter incoming international travel. South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore have significantly slowed new case counts, with the focus shifting to the containment of imported cases.


                    [post_title] => Stats Summary: Asia
                    [post_excerpt] => 
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                    [post_name] => stats-summary-asia
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                    [post_date] => 2020-04-03 12:34:50
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2020-04-03 16:34:50
                    [post_content] => 
As of April 3, Italy and Spain together make up almost half of all confirmed deaths globally (13,915 and 10,348, respectively), while each country has also surpassed 110,000 confirmed cases. Across Europe, ten countries are reporting more than 10,000 cases, while seven countries have reported over 1,000 deaths. Many European countries are also reporting alarmingly high Case Fatality Rates over 5%. Including Italy (12%), Netherlands and Spain (9.1%), UK (8.7%), France (7.1%), Belgium (6.6%), and Sweden (5.2%). This has been partly attributed to selective testing strategies in these countries, while widespread testing is likely contributing to relatively low CFR rate in countries like Germany (1.2%) and Austria (1.4%). The European CDC has nonetheless warned that current testing capacity and if countries do not enact mitigation strategies, Europe could see a scenario similar to China by the middle of April.


                    [post_title] => Stats Summary: Europe
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                    [post_date] => 2020-04-03 12:33:50
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2020-04-03 16:33:50
                    [post_content] => 
The numbers continue to surge in the U.S., with at least 6,098 reported deaths and 245,442 confirmed cases, accounting for almost a quarter of all worldwide cases. New York State has become the epicentre of the outbreak with almost 100,000 confirmed cases, while the U.S. reported over 1,000 deaths for the second day in a row. In Canada, the number of confirmed cases has also increased to 11,283, including 173 reported deaths. With the outbreak expected to spread more widely across the continent over the next two weeks, there are increasing concerns over health care system capacities. The number of cases in South and Central American countries continue to grow, with reported cases in Brazil continuing to jump almost 20% a day to 8,044, while Chile and Ecuador have seen spikes to 3,404 and 3,163 cases, respectively.


                    [post_title] => Stats Summary: Americas
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                    [post_date] => 2020-04-03 12:32:50
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2020-04-03 16:32:50
                    [post_content] => 
The Government of Canada has accelerated approval for the Cepheid and Abbott diagnostic tests, following the issuance of an Interim Order by the Minister of Health on March 18 to expedite access to COVID-19-related medical devices. The COVID-19 Emergency Response Act (Bill C-13) also received royal assent on March 25. Among the sweeping number and scope of measures, the COVID-19 Emergency Response Act amends the Patent Act in order to allow the Government of Canada to issue compulsory licenses to respond to a “public health emergency that is a matter of national concern,” which could apply to diagnostic kits but also personal protective equipment, medical devices and therapeutic products.


                    [post_title] => Government of Canada accelerates approval for diagnostic tests
                    [post_excerpt] => 
                    [post_status] => publish
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                    [post_name] => government-of-canada-accelerates-approval-for-diagnostic-tests
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                    [post_date] => 2020-04-03 12:31:50
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2020-04-03 16:31:50
                    [post_content] => 
Many countries are experiencing shortages in diagnostic testing kits, as the development, production and distribution remain critical challenges that impede early detection and access to care. There are also reports of significant backlogs, in some cases taking over a week to provide results. Further efforts are needed in the development and scaling up of rapid (real-time) diagnostic tests.


The Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics (FIND), a WHO Collaborating Centre for Laboratory Strengthening and Diagnostic Technology Evaluation, has curated a list of the current Diagnostic Pipeline, while the U.S. FDA has now issued Emergency Use Authorizations to at least three COVID-19 rapid diagnostic tests over the last week, including:



                    [post_title] => Increasing diagnostic testing
                    [post_excerpt] => 
                    [post_status] => publish
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                    [post_date] => 2020-04-03 12:30:50
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2020-04-03 16:30:50
                    [post_content] => 
In addition to wide-spread reports of food shortages in India, the nationwide 21-day lockdown has led to a mass exodus of hundreds of thousands of people from major urban areas, increasing the risk of local transmission in rural parts of the country.


There is concern that the true outbreak size in India may be significantly higher than the 2,567 confirmed cases, which has doubled in just two days.


                    [post_title] => Urban mass exodus in India
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                    [post_name] => urban-mass-exodus-in-india
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                    [post_modified] => 2020-08-13 22:42:38
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                    [post_date] => 2020-04-03 12:29:50
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With the outbreak expected to spread more widely across the continent over the next two weeks, there are increasing concerns over health care system capacities. Auxiliary health facilities such as the U.S. Navy Hospital Ship Comfort deployed to the port of New York City (which is the largest affected city globally with over 50,000 cases), and field hospitals have been set up in major urban centres, including New York City’s Central Park and in Toronto, Canada.


                    [post_title] => Auxiliary health facilities set up in major urban centres
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                    [post_modified] => 2020-08-13 22:42:38
                    [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-14 02:42:38
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            [post_date] => 2020-04-03 12:40:50
            [post_date_gmt] => 2020-04-03 16:40:50
            [post_content] => 
Canada Needs to Rapidly Escalate Public Health Interventions for Its COVID-19 Mitigation Strategies (Wu et al, SSRN)


Findings


The initial growth rate in Italy (0.22) has reduced to 0.1 two weeks after the lockdown (8 Mar 2020). This corresponds to an extension of the doubling time from about 3.15 to almost 7 days. In comparison, the growth rate in Canada has increased from 0.13 from 1 March to 13 March up to 0.25 between 13 March to 22 March. This current growth rate corresponds to a doubling time of 2.7 days, and unless public health interventions escalate in Canada, we project 15,000 cases by March 31st. The case number can be reduced to 4,000 if escalated public health interventions can be implemented instantly to reduce the growth rate to 0.1, the same level achieved in Italy.


Interpretation


Intervention measures implemented by different countries have had various effects in reducing the growth rate and extending the doubling time, but their impacts come with a substantial delay (up to two weeks). Prompt and farsighted interventions are critical to counteract the very rapid initial growth of the COVID-19 epidemic. Mitigation plans must take into account the delayed effect of interventions by up to two weeks and the short doubling time of 3 to 4 days.


            [post_title] => Research: Canada Needs to Rapidly Escalate Public Health Interventions for Its COVID-19 Mitigation Strategies
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            [post_modified] => 2020-08-13 22:42:39
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            [guid] => https://covid19.dighr.org/developments/research-canada-needs-to-rapidly-escalate-public-health-interventions-for-its-covid-19-mitigation-strategies/
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