Currently Displaying: 14 Posts. 2 Pages.
ngq, you sexy beast! Here is a sanity check for that clean meta. ;)
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                    [post_date] => 2020-07-30 12:47:58
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                    [post_title] => European Journal of Epidemiology
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                    [post_content] => https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/coronavirus
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                    [post_title] => European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
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According to the latest report by UNDP, global human development is projected to decline for the first time since the UN defined and began measuring the concept in 1990. Unlike other crises over the past three decades, the “triple hit to health, education and income” as a result of COVID-19 has been reported globally. The UNDP warns that developing countries that are less able to cope with the pandemic’s social and economic fallout remain acutely vulnerable. The report urges countries to focus on equity in order to limit these impacts. Closing the digital divide by providing more equitable internet access, for example, is estimated to cost less than 1% of the fiscal support packages but could result in a two-thirds reduction of the impact of school closures that currently leave 60% of children globally without access to education.


WHO COVID-19 Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan


The WHO published a Strategy Update to the COVID‐19 Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan of the emerging epidemiological situation in order to support countries preparing for a phased transition from widespread transmission to a steady state of low‐level or no transmission. The Strategy Update emphasizes a whole-of-UN approach, and provides practical guidance for whole‐of‐society strategic action that can be adapted to local conditions and capacities. Countries have been asked to identify the lead coordinator of multiagency COVID-19 plans, map existing preparedness and response capacities and gaps, engage key technical and operational partners to identify appropriate coordination mechanisms and mobilize resources and capacities, and to establish monitoring mechanisms and operational reviews to track progress and adjust strategies.


An accompanying COVID‐19 Monitoring & Evaluation Framework was developed to support countries, listing key public health and health systems indicators for countries to monitor their preparedness and response to the pandemic. The M&E Framework is organized across three dimensions: Geographical Scope (global, all countries, priority countries); Planning and Monitoring Needs (informing strategic planning, operational tracking, evidence‐based decision‐making, as well as advocacy and transparency between donors, UN agencies, and partners); and across 9 Pillars (Country‐level coordination/planning/monitoring, Risk communication/community engagement, Surveillance/rapid response teams, Points of entry/travel/transport, National laboratories, Infection prevention & control, Case management, Operational support & logistics, Maintaining essential health services & systems).


World Economic Forum’s COVID-19 Risks Outlook


The World Economic Forum, which publishes the annual Global Risks Report, released two new reports that map the global risks, challenges and opportunities that COVID-19 presents. Adopting a complex systems approach, the reports highlight the interdependencies within and across borders but also health, economic, environmental, social, geopolitical systems. At the same time, the emphasis in both documents tilts towards the Great Transformation that will be needed. These include the need to reframe essential public services, notably health but also education, care and social safety nets. The factors that promote and inhibit solidarity and compassion are also raised, alongside needed behavioural shifts towards more sustainable consumption and mobility habits.


Global fiscal support during the COVID pandemic


The monthly IMF Fiscal Monitor adjusted the estimated fiscal support by countries around the world to US$9 trillion as a result of COVID-19. This was roughly divided between public sector loans (and other equity injections) as well as direct budgetary support. The IMF reports that a second wave of government measures to address the economic impact of the pandemic this past month accounted for the $1 trillion increase in the overall figure.


The G20 account for most of this sum ($8 trillion), reinforcing global inequities in the distribution of resources and fiscal support capacities. Developing countries, meanwhile, are also anticipating a “hidden debt risk” due to the unprecedented synchronization of fiscal stresses. Including currency depreciation, capital outflows and foreign-currency borrowing.


Dynamic intervention to relax lockdowns and school closures


A study in the European Journal of Epidemiology modelled dynamic interventions (i.e. cycles of lockdown to reduce R0 to below 1, and intervals of relaxed social distancing) across 16 distinct countries globally. The authors conclude that a ‘rolling schedule’ of 50 days of lockdown followed by 30 days of relaxation could reduce transmission levels and keep ICU demands below national capacities. The model furthermore suggests that adopting such dynamic suppression measures over 18 months could lead to significant reductions of new infections and deaths, particularly in developing countries. Since each model was only run one time per country, one study limitation is testing underlying factors at one fixed value rather than a range of possible outcomes from multiple runs, introducing uncertainty.


The SAGE group in the U.K. also released a report last week that modelled the impact of eight scenarios of school re-opening on community transmission of COVID-19. Between the two extremes of staying closed and fully opening, the most promising scenario was breaking classes into two cohorts and alternating between ‘two weeks on / two weeks off’ over academic year. The authors acknowledge the uncertainties associated with the model, but nevertheless suggest that the impact of school re-opening is likely to be relatively small compared to maintenance of other social distancing measures in the broader community.


                    [post_title] => COVID-19: A Magnifying Glass for Inequalities
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                    [post_date] => 2020-05-24 02:37:36
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                    [post_content] => 
                    [post_title] => Ignacio Gimenez Rebollo
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                    [post_modified] => 2020-07-15 15:32:23
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                    [post_date] => 2020-05-03 16:02:23
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                    [post_content] => 
The doubling rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases dropped to once every 21 days from a high of once every 7 days on April 1. As some countries experience stabilizing or declining national death tolls, it has prompted attempts to loosen lockdown measures. This includes France, Italy and Spain, three of the world’s hardest hit countries (accounting for 20% of cases and a third of all COVID-related deaths worldwide). Germany is begun to relax lockdown measures, as face masks have become mandatory in public. The National Health Service of the United Kingdom set out a six-week plan to ‘return to normal’ following projections that the U.K. has ‘likely survived the first wave’ of the pandemic and will get close to testing targets. Despite a record daily increase in confirmed cases,South Africa restarted some mining operations, as India has also begun to ease lockdown measures following a drop in reported


As some Asian-Pacific countries such as Singapore experience major outbreaks in the second wave of transmission, hospitals across Europe have raised concerns. The WHO noted that many states also do not have adequate testing capacity needed to support a safe reopening strategy that can detect, trace and isolate new COVID transmission. China has meanwhile provided a guide on how countries can prevent a second wave, including compulsory masks in public, fines for failure to exercise public hygiene practices, as well as public markings for social distancing lanes.


The LSHTM is gathering data on hundreds of intervention measures from around the world to determine factors contributing to disease outbreak as well as relative effectiveness of control strategies. For example, to date, Hong Kong’s swift surveillance, quarantine and social-distancing measures – such as the use of face masks and school closures – helped to cut Coronavirus transmission with only 4 deaths in a (urban) population of 7.5 million. The LSHTM platform is being developed to support the WHO’s technical support to member states, and includes more than 1,100 volunteers, multiple universities, public health organizations and non-profits, including ACAPS which analyses humanitarian crises.


                    [post_title] => ‘The second wave is in our hands’: WHO
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                    [post_date] => 2020-04-12 09:59:11
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2020-04-12 13:59:11
                    [post_content] => 
COVID-19 pandemic in west Africa (Martinez-Alvarez et al, Lancet Global Health, 1 April 2020).


Whether warmer temperatures will slow the spread of the COVID-19 virus has been a point of much speculation. This hypothesis has led some European countries to adopt initial policies that rely on decreased transmission rates during the summer months, and the belief that African countries will face smaller epidemics than their European counterparts. No strong evidence base exists for such claims, however. The authors argue that COVID-19 has likely arrived later in west Africa than in Europe, and plot and present data that shows a similar rapid rate of community transmission in West African countries to rates of community transmission in European countries, once a case of COVID-19 has been confirmed. Nine of the25 poorest countries are in the west African region and  have poorly resourced health systems, rendering them unable to quickly scale up an epidemic response. The authors furthermore argue that the impact of a similar COVID-19 epidemic as currently seen in Europe would be devastating in west Africa.


                    [post_title] => Research: COVID-19 pandemic in west Africa
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                    [post_modified] => 2020-08-13 22:41:13
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                    [post_date] => 2020-04-03 12:40:50
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2020-04-03 16:40:50
                    [post_content] => 
Canada Needs to Rapidly Escalate Public Health Interventions for Its COVID-19 Mitigation Strategies (Wu et al, SSRN)


Findings


The initial growth rate in Italy (0.22) has reduced to 0.1 two weeks after the lockdown (8 Mar 2020). This corresponds to an extension of the doubling time from about 3.15 to almost 7 days. In comparison, the growth rate in Canada has increased from 0.13 from 1 March to 13 March up to 0.25 between 13 March to 22 March. This current growth rate corresponds to a doubling time of 2.7 days, and unless public health interventions escalate in Canada, we project 15,000 cases by March 31st. The case number can be reduced to 4,000 if escalated public health interventions can be implemented instantly to reduce the growth rate to 0.1, the same level achieved in Italy.


Interpretation


Intervention measures implemented by different countries have had various effects in reducing the growth rate and extending the doubling time, but their impacts come with a substantial delay (up to two weeks). Prompt and farsighted interventions are critical to counteract the very rapid initial growth of the COVID-19 epidemic. Mitigation plans must take into account the delayed effect of interventions by up to two weeks and the short doubling time of 3 to 4 days.


                    [post_title] => Research: Canada Needs to Rapidly Escalate Public Health Interventions for Its COVID-19 Mitigation Strategies
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                    [post_modified] => 2020-08-13 22:42:39
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                    [post_date] => 2020-04-03 12:39:50
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Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non- pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries (Flaxman et al, Imperial College London)


Findings


This study attempts to infer the impact of different interventions across 11 European countries using a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model. The authors estimate that through the end of March, interventions taken by countries likely averted 59,000 deaths while reducing reproduction numbers. During this period, the authors also estimate that 7-43 million people may have been infected across the 11 countries (or approx. 2-11% of total population). Spain and Italy are estimated to have the highest attack rate, with Germany and Norway on the lower end (possibly reflecting the relative stages of the epidemics.


Interpretation


While the two to three-week delay between transmission changes and observed impact on mortality make it difficult to evaluate the effectiveness of recent interventions, the authors urge that preliminary evidence suggests that current interventions remain in place and that trends in cases and deaths be closely monitored to provide reassurance that transmission is slowing.


                    [post_title] => Research: Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non- pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries
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The total number of cases continue to increase by at least 10% for a second day to 1,039,158, and 55,000 confirmed deaths, as of 3 April 2020 (9:25am EST).


Although the U.S. and Europe constitute over 70% of confirmed cases, the rapid increase of local clusters across low- and middle-income countries has emerged as a major concern.


CFR figures (in order of countries with the highest number of deaths)


Italy (11.4%)

Spain (8.7%)

Iran (6.5%)

U.K. (8.2%)

France (6.8%)

China (4.1%)

US (1.9%)

Netherlands (8.3%)


                    [post_title] => Stats Summary: Global
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                    [post_date] => 2020-04-03 12:34:50
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                    [post_content] => 
As of April 3, Italy and Spain together make up almost half of all confirmed deaths globally (13,915 and 10,348, respectively), while each country has also surpassed 110,000 confirmed cases. Across Europe, ten countries are reporting more than 10,000 cases, while seven countries have reported over 1,000 deaths. Many European countries are also reporting alarmingly high Case Fatality Rates over 5%. Including Italy (12%), Netherlands and Spain (9.1%), UK (8.7%), France (7.1%), Belgium (6.6%), and Sweden (5.2%). This has been partly attributed to selective testing strategies in these countries, while widespread testing is likely contributing to relatively low CFR rate in countries like Germany (1.2%) and Austria (1.4%). The European CDC has nonetheless warned that current testing capacity and if countries do not enact mitigation strategies, Europe could see a scenario similar to China by the middle of April.


                    [post_title] => Stats Summary: Europe
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The numbers continue to surge in the U.S., with at least 6,098 reported deaths and 245,442 confirmed cases, accounting for almost a quarter of all worldwide cases. New York State has become the epicentre of the outbreak with almost 100,000 confirmed cases, while the U.S. reported over 1,000 deaths for the second day in a row. In Canada, the number of confirmed cases has also increased to 11,283, including 173 reported deaths. With the outbreak expected to spread more widely across the continent over the next two weeks, there are increasing concerns over health care system capacities. The number of cases in South and Central American countries continue to grow, with reported cases in Brazil continuing to jump almost 20% a day to 8,044, while Chile and Ecuador have seen spikes to 3,404 and 3,163 cases, respectively.


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            [post_title] => European Journal of Epidemiology
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